Estimating the causal effects of the demand-driven system reform on higher education equity

Project Summary

The rising cost of higher education in Australia and its implications for equity have been the subject of increasing scrutiny in recent years. One of the most consequential reforms in the sector was the introduction of the Demand-Driven System (DDS) between 2009 and 2012, which removed caps on the number of Commonwealth-supported undergraduate places universities could offer. The DDS aims to effectively allow institutions to expand enrolments in response to student demand, especially among traditionally underrepresented groups.

While the reform succeeded in expanding overall participation, questions remain about the causal effects of DDS on access, completion, and early labour market outcomes of students from underrepresented groups, including those from low socioeconomic status (SES), regional, and Indigenous backgrounds. This project seeks to fill that gap and provide causal evidence using advanced quasi-experimental methods and nationally linked administrative data.

This QED project seeks to estimate the causal effects of the Demand-Driven System (DDS) reform on student outcomes using the Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA). It aims to investigate heterogeneous impacts on equity groups, including low-SES, regional, and Indigenous students using a quasi-experimental methodology, a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDiD) framework.

Specifically, the proposed study seeks to answer the following key research questions: (i) how did the DDS reform affect higher education access, progression, and early labour market outcomes for equity group students in Australia? (ii) to what extent did these effects differ across key dimensions such as field of study, institution type, and relative to outcomes observed among non-equity students?